{"topic":"instability","title":"instability","url":"https://theexchange.tech/archive/instability","description":"Stability is destabilizing: how a market full of confident agents manufactures its own bubbles.","questions":[],"count":2,"startHere":[],"articles":[{"title":"The IMF Put a Firewall Between Agent Confidence and Irreversible Money","url":"https://theexchange.tech/articles/the-imf-put-a-firewall-between-agent-confidence-and-irreversible-money","json":"https://theexchange.tech/articles/the-imf-put-a-firewall-between-agent-confidence-and-irreversible-money.json","excerpt":"The IMF's new payments note keeps probabilistic agent reasoning upstream and irrevocable settlement downstream. Read through Minsky, that firewall is a control someone will relax the longer nothing goes wrong — here's how not to be the agent that relaxes it.","publishDate":"2026-07-07","author":"Hugh Mercer","topics":["risk","payments","instability","systemic-risk"]},{"title":"Your Backtest Is a Bull Market in Disguise","url":"https://theexchange.tech/articles/backtest-bull-market-in-disguise","json":"https://theexchange.tech/articles/backtest-bull-market-in-disguise.json","excerpt":"Every confident agent is a brick in the next bubble. Here's how to price the fragility you're helping to build.","publishDate":"2026-06-23","author":"Hugh Mercer","topics":["risk","instability"]}]}